http://www.agiletestingdays.com/session/planning-with-noestimates/
@gil-zilberfeld
Why do we estimate?
- Decisions
- Go / Not Go / Not Now
- Compare Alternatives
- Address fear / Feel in control
- Plans
- Costs
- Deadlines (when will it be ready?)
- Dependencies
- Please Managers
- Upset Managers (because we do not meet the estimation)
How do Estimates feel?
- commitment
- lying (because we feel estimation is not really possible)
- push out of comfort zone
- lot of effort
- lot of speculation
How good can we estimate / predict the future?
- very convincing demonstration on how we suck at estimations (Estimation Game by Laurent Bossavid)
- especially when requirements are imprecise / conflicting
- and if it's something new, we haven't ever done before
Estimates are ...
- ... treated as commitments
- ... inflated by other (because we know it always takes longer)
- ... imprecise
- ... a waste of time and money
Do they help for better decisions? Being in control?
"It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." - Hofstadter's Law
Assumptions ...
- ... are always made (subconsciously)
- become aware of them
- write them down
- communicate them
So ...
- Prove that requirements are valuable
- 70% of the requirements are "wrong"
- Build experiments that prove / disprove your assumptions